The year 2025 ends with a consensus among economists: the world has not simply entered a cyclical slowdown, but is undergoing a profound structural transformation of the global economy. The benchmarks of past decades—low inflation, fluid globalization, cheap energy, low interest rates—are no longer the norm.
By 2026, leaders, investors, and public decision-makers will have to contend with a more fragmented and uncertain environment, but one that also promises major innovations. Here are 26 key trends in France, Europe, and around the world that will shape the economic landscape of tomorrow.
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1. Artificial intelligence is becoming a macroeconomic factor
AI is no longer just a technological tool: it is becoming a factor in macroeconomic growth. International studies estimate that AI could contribute between 5% and 7% of global GDP in the long term, mainly through productivity gains and increased automation of cognitive tasks.
By 2026, its effects will become visible in financial services, consulting, logistics, healthcare, and industry. However, these gains remain unevenly distributed: only companies capable of integrating AI into their processes will fully benefit from this dynamic.
2. Global investment in AI exceeds $300 billion
Cumulative investment in AI—data centers, semiconductors, software, cloud infrastructure—has increased more than fourfold since 2020. By 2026, annual spending will exceed $300 billion.
This dynamic creates a massive ripple effect on energy, electrical grids, logistics real estate, and digital skills, while intensifying competition between major technological powers.
3. Productivity is recovering, but very unevenly
AI promises significant productivity gains on certain tasks, sometimes exceeding 15 or 20%, but these gains remain largely invisible in overall statistics. Average productivity is growing slowly, masking significant disparities between companies.
This situation widens the gap between those who are able to exploit new technologies and those who remain on the sidelines, contributing to a growing polarization of economic performance.
4. The permanent reinstatement of customs duties
After several decades of gradual trade liberalization, tariffs have once again become a central instrument of economic policy. Since 2018, average tariffs applied to trade between China and the United States have increased more than sixfold, from levels below 3% to rates exceeding 18% on many industrial products. This development marks a lasting break with the model of globalization that had prevailed since the 1990s.
This return of trade barriers is not limited to Sino-American relations. In 2026, more than 60% of world trade is now subject to some form of trade restriction (tariffs, quotas, export controls, sanctions), compared to around 30% before 2018. The sectors most affected are automotive, steel, agri-food, energy, and strategic technologies, with direct cost increases for importing and exporting companies.
Economically speaking, these tariffs have measurable effects on prices, investment, and growth. Studies show that a 10-point increase in tariffs can lead to a 2-4% increase in domestic prices for the products concerned and a 5-10% decrease in trade volumes . By 2026, this new trade environment will increase inflationary pressures, weaken supply chains, and encourage companies to permanently review their production and location strategies.
5. A trade war that has become structural
Beyond customs duties, trade restrictions now extend to sensitive technologies, semiconductors, critical metals, and energy. Export controls are increasing.
This structural trade war weakens global trade, reduces economies of scale, and increases production costs, particularly for open economies such as Europe.
6. Fragmentation of global trade
Since the early 2020s, global trade has been undergoing a gradual fragmentation that is challenging several decades of economic integration. International trade flows are not disappearing, but they are being reorganized according to geopolitical logic. Economic analyses show that the share of trade between countries belonging to "geopolitically close" blocs has increased by more than 10 points since 2019, to the detriment of cross-border trade between major economic zones.
This phenomenon of "friend-shoring" is leading to a restructuring of value chains. Companies now favor suppliers and production sites located in countries considered politically reliable, even when costs are higher. According to estimates, this reorganization is leading to an increase in production costs of between 3% and 8% depending on the sector, particularly in manufacturing, electronics, and automotive.
On a macroeconomic level, this fragmentation reduces the productivity gains resulting from international specialization. Economists estimate that a lasting decline in trade integration could reduce global GDP by 0.5 to 1 percentage point in the long term. By 2026, this trend will force companies and governments to constantly weigh economic efficiency against strategic security, with lasting consequences for competitiveness, prices, and growth.
7. A Europe more exposed to geopolitical tensions
Europe remains heavily dependent on energy imports, certain raw materials, and key technologies. It is therefore more vulnerable to geopolitical shocks than the United States.
This vulnerability is fueling strategic thinking about the continent's industrial, energy, and technological autonomy.
8. An expensive but unavoidable energy transition
The energy transition is one of the most significant economic projects of the decade. Estimates agree: to achieve European climate targets, the necessary investments represent between 2% and 4% of the annual GDP of developed economies over the period 2025-2035. At the European Union level, this corresponds to more than €500 billion in investments per year, focused on electricity grids, renewable energies, energy efficiency, and the renovation of existing infrastructure.
In the short term, these investments have a real economic cost. The transition is leading to higher public and private spending, pressure on energy prices, and increased demand for critical raw materials. The prices of metals needed for green technologies (copper, lithium, nickel) have risen by between 50% and more than 200% in certain periods since 2020, fueling inflationary pressures and high volatility in production costs.
In the medium and long term, however, this transition is crucial to energy sovereignty and economic stability. Economies that delay their investments expose themselves to increased dependence on energy imports and vulnerability to geopolitical shocks. In 2026, the energy transition is no longer an ideological choice but an economic imperative: it is reshaping cost structures, altering industrial balances, and is one of the major determinants of the future competitiveness of businesses and regions.
9. Structurally higher energy costs
Since the energy crisis of the early 2020s, energy prices in Europe have changed dramatically. Even after markets have partially normalized, electricity and gas prices remain significantly higher than before 2020. On average, the cost of electricity for European businesses remains 30% to 50% higher than in the 2015–2019 period, while natural gas prices remain consistently above historical standards.
This structural increase can be explained by several cumulative factors: massive investments in energy transition infrastructure, increased volatility in global markets, geopolitical constraints on supplies, and pricing mechanisms that are more sensitive to tensions. Added to this are the costs associated with decarbonization, including carbon taxes and investment obligations, which automatically increase the final price of energy for businesses and households.
Economically speaking, this new energy landscape has a direct impact on European industrial competitiveness. Energy-intensive sectors—metallurgy, chemicals, agri-food, transportation—are seeing their production costs rise by between 5% and 15%, depending on the case. By 2026, energy costs will thus become a structural factor differentiating between companies and regions, influencing choices regarding location, investment, and industrial specialization.
10. More volatile inflation than before
Unlike in previous decades, inflation no longer follows a linear and predictable trajectory. Economists are now observing more erratic inflation, marked by rapid increases followed by periods of calm, then new sectoral peaks. This volatility can be explained by a combination of multiple shocks: geopolitical tensions, energy price fluctuations, climate disruptions affecting agricultural supply, and reorganization of global supply chains.
This instability manifests itself in very different ways depending on the sector. While some industries are managing to stabilize their prices, others are experiencing sharp and recurring increases, particularly in energy, food, services, and transportation. These sectoral differences make overall inflation indicators less clear and complicate the interpretation of macroeconomic data by both businesses and public authorities.
For economic actors, this more volatile inflation makes planning considerably more difficult. Decisions on investment, pricing, wage negotiations, and inventory management become riskier. Uncertainty about cost trends reduces medium-term visibility and pushes companies to incorporate more scenarios, safety margins, and flexibility into their management. This new inflationary environment is one of the major challenges facing the economy in 2026.
11. The definitive end of the zero interest rate era
After more than a decade of exceptionally low, even negative real interest rates, the global economy has entered a new monetary regime. Between 2015 and 2021, key interest rates in the eurozone were close to 0%, and long-term real rates were largely negative. By 2026, this configuration will clearly be a thing of the past. European key interest rates have settled permanently between 3% and 4%, while long-term rates have stabilized at historically higher levels than in the 2010s.
This change is profoundly altering economic behavior. The cost of credit has become a key factor in investment decisions, whereas it was secondary during the era of low interest rates. Companies now have to be more selective about their projects, and households are seeing their borrowing capacity significantly reduced. In France, for example, real estate purchasing power has declined by 20 to 25% between 2021 and 2024 due to the combined effect of rising rates and tighter credit conditions.
This normalization of rates also has major budgetary implications for governments. Public debt servicing, which had long been kept under control thanks to low rates, is once again becoming a significant expense item. A one percentage point increase in interest rates can represent several billion euros in additional costs per year for major European economies. In 2026, this financial constraint will limit governments' ability to support the economy and reinforce the trade-offs between growth, energy transition, and fiscal discipline.
12. Public debt at historic levels
In several European countries, public debt exceeds 110% of GDP, limiting fiscal room for maneuver.
Governments must strike a balance between economic support, energy transition, and fiscal discipline.
13. The return of industrial policies
After several decades dominated by free trade and competitive discipline, industrial policies are making a marked comeback. In Europe and the United States, governments are now intervening directly to support sectors deemed strategic: energy, semiconductors, defense, batteries, artificial intelligence, and healthcare. For example, the cumulative industrial support plans announced in the major developed economies represent more than $3 trillion over the decade 2020-2030.
In Europe, subsidy schemes, tax credits, and targeted aid are on the rise. Public aid to industry has increased by more than 40% since 2019. This trend aims to reduce external dependence, secure supply chains, and preserve industrial jobs. However, it is profoundly changing the rules of competition between companies and between countries, creating lasting market distortions.
For businesses, this return of the state as strategist is changing the economic landscape. Access to aid is becoming a key factor in competitiveness, while investment decisions are increasingly influenced by geopolitical and regulatory considerations. By 2026, this increased intervention by public authorities is set to become a structural feature of the European economic landscape.
14. A global skills shortage
The shortage of skilled labor is one of the main obstacles to economic growth. In Europe, more than 60% of companies report difficulties in recruiting, a figure that exceeds 70% in certain sectors such as industry, engineering, construction, and digital technology. This situation has worsened significantly since the health crisis.
In technical and scientific professions, the gap between supply and demand is particularly pronounced. For example, the shortage of qualified profiles in the digital and engineering fields amounts to several hundred thousand unfilled positions across Europe. This shortage limits companies' ability to meet demand, innovate, and absorb new technologies such as AI and advanced automation.
On a macroeconomic scale, this skills shortage has a direct impact on potential growth. Economists estimate that labor market tensions could reduce annual growth by 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points of GDP in some European countries. In 2026, the issue of skills will therefore be a key factor in competitiveness and economic sovereignty.
15. Structural pressure on wages
The skills shortage automatically translates into increased pressure on wages. Since 2021, nominal wages have risen by 4% to 6% per year in many sectors under pressure, well above their historical rate. In the tech, engineering, and healthcare professions, some increases occasionally exceed 8% to 10% per year.
This wage dynamic is not solely a result of inflationary catch-up. It is structural, fueled by demographic aging, international competition for talent, and the transformation of required skills. Even when inflation slows, wages tend to remain high over the long term, creating a ratchet effect on business costs.
On an economic scale, this wage pressure contributes to more persistent inflation, particularly in services, which account for more than 70% of GDP in developed economies. It also alters social and economic balances, exacerbating tensions between business competitiveness, household purchasing power, and the sustainability of economic models by 2026.
16. Unfavorable demographics in Europe
Demographics are one of the most influential factors shaping the European economy in the medium and long term. In 2026, the working-age population (15–64 years old) will continue to decline in most European countries. According to demographic projections, this population could decline by 0.3% to 0.5% per year in several major eurozone economies over the next decade.
Aging is accelerating rapidly. In Europe, people over the age of 65 now account for more than 21% of the population, compared with around 16% in the early 2000s. This trend automatically increases the dependency ratio, i.e., the ratio of the inactive population to the active population, which weighs on potential growth and the financing of social systems.
Economically speaking, this demographic trend reduces structural growth capacity. Economists estimate that aging could reduce annual growth by 0.4 to 0.7 percentage points in certain European economies by 2030. In 2026, demographics thus appear to be a lasting constraint that will be difficult to offset without significant productivity gains or increased use of economic immigration.
17. Rising social tensions
Inflation, working conditions, and inequality fuel recurring social movements in many countries. These tensions are a factor in economic and political instability.
18. Financial volatility has become structural
Markets alternate between periods of calm and rapid corrections, reflecting an uncertain environment. Volatility is becoming a permanent feature of the financial landscape.
19. Increased selectivity in funding
The monetary and financial context has profoundly changed the conditions for accessing financing. After years of abundant liquidity, banks and investors are now much more selective in their choice of projects. Between 2022 and 2025, corporate lending volumes slowed by 30 to 40% in several European countries, particularly for SMEs and projects considered risky.
The criteria for granting loans have become stricter: profitability ratios, cash flow generation, debt levels, and visibility of the business model have once again become key factors. Companies with low profitability or high debt levels are experiencing a sharp increase in the cost of credit, with bank margins sometimes doubling or tripling compared to the 2016–2020 period.
This increased selectivity favors the strongest companies but accentuates disparities within the economic fabric. In 2026, access to financing becomes a major discriminating factor: companies capable of demonstrating financial strength, management discipline, and strategic visibility retain access to capital, while others see their projects slowed down or abandoned.
20. A decline in highly speculative investments
The financial environment of 2026 marks a sharp decline in investments based solely on assumptions of future growth. Financing for highly leveraged, unprofitable, or growth-dependent projects has declined significantly. For example, private equity volumes directed toward unprofitable companies have fallen by 40 to 60 percent from the peaks seen between 2019 and 2021.
This correction is particularly visible in the technology sector. Fundraising by start-ups in the very early stages has slowed significantly, while investors now favor models that demonstrate a credible path to profitability. This shift has been accompanied by a significant decline in valuations in certain segments, sometimes by 30 to 50% from their post-COVID highs.
This return to economic discipline marks a profound cultural shift. In 2026, the ability to generate real cash flows, control costs, and withstand adverse scenarios has once again become paramount. Speculative investments have not disappeared, but they have become the exception rather than the norm, reflecting the increased maturity of financial markets after a decade of exuberance.
21. An explosion of intangible assets
Over the past two decades, the structure of global economic wealth has undergone a profound transformation. Intangible assets—data, software, brands, patents, algorithms, organizational know-how—now account for more than 55% of the total value of listed companies in developed economies, compared with less than 30% in the early 1990s. This trend is accelerating as we approach 2026, driven by digitization, AI, and the service economy.
Intangible investments have now surpassed tangible investments in many European countries. In France and Northern Europe, spending on R&D, software, training, and databases accounts for 3 to 5% of GDP, a level comparable to, or even higher than, that of traditional industrial investments. However, a large portion of these assets remains poorly reflected in financial accounts, as they are often recorded as expenses rather than investments.
On a macroeconomic level, this rise in intangible assets is profoundly changing the drivers of competitiveness. The most successful companies are no longer necessarily those with the most physical assets, but those that have mastered data, key skills, strong brands, and technological ecosystems. By 2026, this trend will accentuate productivity gaps between companies, complicate the interpretation of economic performance, and reinforce the strategic importance of managing, protecting, and leveraging intangible capital.
22. More extensive and complex regulation
The regulatory environment in Europe has become considerably more complex in recent years. Between 2020 and 2025, the number of regulations applicable to businesses (ESG, data, competition, taxation, AI) has increased by more than 30% according to institutional analyses. In 2026, measures such as the CSRD, the AI regulation, the strengthening of the duty of care, and environmental standards will broaden the scope of reporting and operational obligations.
This regulatory densification has a measurable economic cost. Studies show that compliance expenses (reporting, auditing, information systems, legal advice) now represent between 1% and 3% of turnover for some European companies, with higher peaks in regulated sectors. These costs are structural and have a lasting impact on operational profitability, particularly for SMEs and mid-cap companies.
In terms of valuation, this regulatory complexity increases the dispersion of values. Companies that are able to anticipate, structure their compliance, and transform regulatory constraints into strategic advantages see their perceived risk decrease. Conversely, poorly managed regulatory exposure can result in an additional risk premium of 50 to 200 basis points in valuation models. By 2026, regulation will no longer be a simple framework: it will become a differentiating factor in value.
23. Increased demand for transparency
Transparency has become a key economic factor. In Europe, more than 50,000 companies are now subject to stricter requirements to disclose non-financial information (CSRD, social and environmental reporting, governance). This change is profoundly altering the relationship between companies, investors, banks, and stakeholders. The information published is no longer merely descriptive: it directly influences perceptions of risk and future performance.
From an economic perspective, studies show that companies perceived as opaque incur a higher risk premium, resulting in a capital cost that is 50 to 150 basis points higher depending on the sector. Conversely, greater transparency on risks, strategy, and key indicators improves access to financing and reduces perceived uncertainty. In practice, two companies with comparable results may have significantly different values depending on the quality and credibility of their information.
When it comes to valuation, this requirement for transparency changes the very nature of analytical work. Models based on insufficiently documented data are increasingly being challenged, particularly in the context of transactions, litigation, or tax audits. By 2026, a company's ability to produce clear, consistent, and traceable information will become a value driver in its own right, directly influencing risk assumptions, scenarios, and valuation conclusions.
24. Questioning growth models
The growth models that dominated the period from 2010 to 2021 were largely based on assumptions of rapid growth, easy access to financing, and deferred profitability. This paradigm is now being challenged. Since 2022, markets and investors have favored more cautious trajectories, incorporating profitability, cash flow generation, and resilience. This shift has resulted in a 30% to 50% decline in valuations for certain models based solely on future growth.
On a macroeconomic level, this shift is visible in investment flows. Capital is being redirected toward companies that can demonstrate controlled growth, sustainable margins, and the ability to absorb economic shocks. Economists observe that companies combining moderate growth and stable profitability exhibit 20 to 30% less volatility in value than highly expansive but fragile models.
In terms of valuation, this re-evaluation requires a change in methodology. Highly optimistic long-term projections are now being challenged more, and cautious scenarios are gaining importance. Value is no longer based primarily on a very uncertain long-term outlook, but on the ability to generate regular and defensible cash flows in an unstable environment. As we approach 2026, this shift marks a transition from a "maximum growth" approach to a sustainable growth approach, with a direct impact on the assumptions, discount rates, and value ranges used.
25. A more uncertain but more adaptive economy
The global economy of 2026 is characterized by increased uncertainty, but also by a greater capacity to adapt. Recent shocks have shown that companies capable of reacting quickly, adjusting their costs, and diversifying their sources of revenue are more resilient to crises. Macroeconomic analyses indicate that the most agile companies have seen their revenues fluctuate 30 to 40% less than their competitors during periods of high volatility since 2020.
This adaptability is based on several drivers: organizational flexibility, digitalization, geographic diversification, and the ability to quickly review investment decisions. Companies that have invested in these drivers also show better risk-adjusted profitability. Economists observe that their earnings volatility is 20 to 25% lower on average than that of more rigid companies.
From a valuation perspective, this ability to adapt becomes an economic asset in its own right. It translates into greater cash flow resilience and reduced uncertainty about future scenarios. By 2026, models that explicitly incorporate this agility—through scenarios, stress tests, or probabilistic approaches—will yield more stable and defensible values, particularly in investment or litigation contexts.
26. A new economic culture is emerging
Successive crises have profoundly changed the economic culture of leaders, investors, and institutions. The period of linear optimism, based on continuous growth and stable assumptions, has given way to a more cautious and structured approach. In 2026, more than 70% of European leaders say they incorporate multiple economic scenarios into their strategic decisions, compared to less than 40% before 2020.
This cultural shift is reflected in increased use of risk management, sensitivity analysis, and advanced steering tools. Companies are investing more in data, modeling, and governance. Studies show that those that have formalized a structured approach to risk are 25% to 30% less likely to fail over a full economic cycle.
In terms of valuation, this new culture is profoundly changing stakeholder expectations. Simplistic or overly optimistic approaches are increasingly being challenged, while cautious, well-documented, and scenario-based analyses are gaining credibility. In 2026, value is no longer perceived as a single, fixed figure, but as a reasonable range, reflecting an uncertain but better understood economic world.
Onward to 2026!
At the dawn of 2026, the economic world appears more fragmented and demanding, but also rich in opportunities for those who can read the major trends and adapt to them.
The entire team XVAL wishes you a very happy holiday season. May this period be an opportunity to take a step back, prepare for the future, and approach 2026 with clarity, serenity, and ambition.
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